How warm weather helped cause avalanches in Lake Tahoe
Record heat and heavy snowfall led to recent avalanches that killed at least eight skiers

Motorists are warned about dangerous driving conditions on the road leading into the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
Much of the western US, including California and the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada, experienced an exceptionally warm winter, breaking records in many areas. And that unseasonable heat may have caused a devastating avalanche on the area’s Castle Peak mountain that buried a group of skiers on Tuesday.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, says weeks of warm weather have caused the thin ice layer at higher elevations in the Lake Tahoe area to partially melt, creating an unstable base layer that has been covered in snow over the past few days. according to National Weather ServiceThree feet of snow fell in some parts of the region in 24 hours and it is estimated that more than five feet of snow has fallen there since Sunday.
“It’s gone from hot and dry to very sudden heavy snowfall,” Swain says. “It was probably in the area where this avalanche occurred.”
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Sven says this combination of unstable base beneath a thick layer of unconsolidated fresh snow is one of the most dangerous causes of avalanches in the mountains. And it appears to have caused an avalanche Tuesday that trapped skiers on Castle Peak, which is near the town of Truckee, California, and a few miles northwest of Lake Tahoe.
According to news reports, the bodies of eight skiers have been recovered, with a ninth person missing but presumed dead. The other six skiers in the group survived but had to be rescued by a vehicle called a Snowcat due to blizzard-like conditions.
David Reichel, Executive Director Sierra Avalanche Centerwho issues forecasts for the Tahoe-Truckee area, says his group has been monitoring snow surface weakening recently. “We made many videos These problematic layers have been under discussion for about a week now,” he added.
Swain says many scientists fear rising temperatures due to climate change will increase dangerous avalanches. Although rising temperatures may indicate less snowfall, that’s not the whole picture. Less snowfall is expected at lower elevations, but higher elevations may actually see more snowfall because temperatures there remain below zero but warm enough that there may be more moisture for storms.
“The impact of climate change on avalanches is still under study, but … the likelihood of drier and warmer conditions preceding very heavy snowfall in California has increased,” Swain says.
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