TeaT his week the IMF released an update to its World Economic Outlook, titled “Global economy: stable between different forces“And, seriously, what horrific world are they living in? This was yet another example of international groups, governments, and parts of the media intelligently glossing over the grave crisis facing us all because Donald Trump is an egotistical scoundrel with the impulses of a spoiled child.
Here’s how the timing goes: On Sunday, Donald Trump announced he would impose a 10% tariff on “any and all goods shipped to the United States” from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland starting February 1, and will raise it to 25% starting June 1 unless they let the US regain control of Greenland.
The next day the IMF released a report in which it said that from October 2025, “trade tensions have been steadily declining but may occasionally flare up”.
flare up? Crips. I guess the IMF can’t write “The madman in the White House hasn’t done anything recently, but you know he’ll probably do it because he’s deranged and might decide for example that he deserves Greenland because Norway didn’t give him the Nobel Peace Prize.”
No one writes or says like this. Everyone is trying hard to pretend that things are normal. Americans being killed by gangs of thugs backed by the government and Trump threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act is absolutely worthy a direct report. Heck, Donald Trump posting a photo Sitting yourself in front of a map showing the US flags over Venezuela, Canada and Greenland is just Trump being Trump – a little provocative, or even just. “Trolling”.
Give me strength.
When did everyone become fully committed to ensuring that grave acts of violence and betrayal of international law would be made up for easy consumption?
Consider the IMF’s update to this chart of the effective rate of tariffs that shows the average tariff paid by Americans on all imports is higher than the IMF estimated in October.
They describe this in very calm language, beyond any emotion or understanding: “The overall US effective tariff rate is at approximately the same level as assumed in the October 2025 WEO, but changes could be meaningful for specific countries”.
“Meaningful”?
The tariffs Americans are paying now are six times higher than last year, and they are set to rise even higher. But of course, “worthwhile”.
This is all very disturbing.
The IMF has decided that yes, tariffs are bad, but have you seen all that investment in AI?
I noted earlier that recent GDP data showed that AI investment is also accelerating in Australia:
The IMF has clearly embraced AI as a driver of economic growth for the future.
The report notes that “On the upside, rapid adoption of AI, possibly coupled with ongoing increases in AI-related investments in both hard and soft infrastructure, could significantly improve productivity and boost medium-term growth prospects sooner rather than later.”
I mean, yes, it can happen. It could also, as the IMF says, “fail to deliver earnings commensurate with its lofty valuation, and investor sentiment could deteriorate”. The result is that it “could trigger a costly reallocation of capital and labour… and lead to a more significant correction in equity markets, further widening the global output deficit”.
That is: a global recession.
What about energy concerns? No worries, as long as governments implement “complementary policies to cushion the potential impact on energy prices” and “increase essential critical intermediate inputs, and put labor market programs in place to manage the workforce transition”.
But apart from those little hiccups…
The IMF report makes no mention of Greenland, Venezuela or even Trump. Everything that defiles the appearance of continuing normalcy is eliminated.
And normality has left the room, the building, and was last seen driving at 160 km/h towards the edge of the Grand Canyon.
This week, Trump invited countries around the world to join his personal United Nations, the “Peace Board,” and proposed a worth $1 billion To become a permanent member.
Yes, $1 billion to sit at a table with Tony Blair and Jared Kushner. When French President Macron said, yes noTrump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines. This is a completely normal thing to say or do, and is absolutely a matter of “holding steady between different forces.”
Ignore the crazy guy sitting in the middle of the room, let’s focus on global growth projections which are good if we assume normality.
Clear out the kidnapping of a national leader because Trump wants to get oil, ignore the fact that Trump took America back two weeks ago 66 international organizations Involved “International Institute for Justice and Rule of Law”, and “United Nations Conference on Trade and Development” and “International Trade Centre”.
Ignore this and instead write, “Against this backdrop of stabilizing trade tensions and supportive financial conditions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, adapting to the changing landscape and the pace varying across countries and regions.”
The IMF wants to pretend that all is calm and good; It is not. This pretense gives Trump more permission to destroy everything he pleases.
