Labor MPs could barely contain their joy on Monday. Even before the start of today’s Parliament, citizens had already debated leadership spillover and Susan Leigh was firmly on borrowed time.
He cheered on Anthony Albanese at a caucus meeting, in which he compared the coalition’s disarray to a messy break-up on the reality TV show, Married at First Sight.
But, as the government enters the delivery phase of its second term, even with a 94-seat majority and a stable cabinet, the stakes are quite high for the Prime Minister.
When voters next go to the polls – perhaps as early as 2028 – managing the 10 key challenges will be critical to the government’s success and the country’s future.
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One of the main arguments against potential challenger Angus Taylor taking the lead this week is the Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision on Tuesday. The Liberals want to harass the government with possible interest rate hikes as the cost of living for families continues to rise. Bringing sticky inflation back to the 2% to 3% target is a do-or-break challenge.
Not even a month has passed since Albanese bowed to pressure and announced a royal commission into anti-Semitism and social cohesion. Commissioner Virginia Bell’s hearing, and a review of intelligence agencies by former Asio boss Dennis Richardson, could highlight security failures that contributed to the tragedy at Bondi Beach.
Labor may have missed out on the right to host the COP31 summit, but the government is already sweating on meeting its 43% emissions reduction target for 2030, a target that requires a dramatic increase in the use of renewable energy. Labor has also pledged to cut emissions between 62% and 70% by 2035, a huge task that requires a reengineering of the energy system as household bills rise and rise.
Donald Trump may have backed the AUK nuclear deal, but Albanese will still have to deal with the whims of the erratic US president. Labor has indicated it will not join Trump’s new peace board, but risks an angry reaction if the White House is informed. Similarly, managing Australia’s relationship with China will become more challenging amid the realignment of global powers and the risk of pressure from Beijing to regain control over Taiwan.
The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is already preparing the May budget. Along with massive new spending, including Albanese’s ambition for universal child care, it will be necessary to curb the growth in the National Disability Insurance Scheme and aged care. National Cabinet last week agreed to reduce the NDIS growth rate from the current rate of 9.5% to between 5 and 6%. The path to savings is not clear yet.
Labor also faces challenges of its own making. There is growing unhappiness within the caucus over the government’s failure to deal with sports betting advertising, and the special minister of state, Don Farrell, wants to extend the parliament. In the 40 years since the last expansion, the population has increased by 11 million people.
Labor will hardly be the only government that has struggled to close the gap on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander disadvantage, but since Parliament had a voice in the referendum, Indigenous issues have almost disappeared from the agenda. The promise of Albanese’s comprehensive economic policy for First Nations communities has yet to be fulfilled.
These challenges await the government even before it can understand the technological earthquake of AI and its potential to reshape our lives. Transforming the work and cutting edge information environments on which our institutions are founded may be only the smallest part of this task.
Like the alcohol-soaked drama of reality TV, Albanese predicts Labour’s opponents will succumb to drama and dishonesty. But it will be important for Labor and the country for his government to avoid a false sense of security.
Tom McIlroy is political editor of Guardian Australia
