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Sir Keir Starmer hopes 2026 will be a revival of his poor premiership. However, barely three weeks into the year, conversations within his own party are focused on who will replace him and when.
On Thursday, independent MP Andrew Gwynne announced his retirement, opening the opportunity for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and challenge the increasingly embattled prime minister.
Ladbrokes immediately declared Burnham the 7/2 favorite to take over as Prime Minister by the end of the year.
Others vying for the crown if there is a vacancy, according to MPs, include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner.
Many of Streeting’s colleagues have urged him to step up to the leadership as soon as possible. One MP said, “When Wes is awake, he’s organizing and when he’s sleeping, he’s dreaming of organizing.”
A minister said Streeting was considering mounting a leadership challenge ahead of a nationwide election in May – despite his team’s denials – and his behavior was unsettling Starmer’s allies. An aide to Starmer said, “There’s a lot of noise around Wes and it’s not his fault, but he keeps wandering out of his zone.”
Meanwhile, Mahmood has drawn keen interest from Rupert Murdoch and other senior executives at News UK – the publisher of The Times and The Sun – for his tough stance on immigration, according to a company figure.
In a sign of Starmer’s nervousness about a potential leadership challenge, MPs have in recent weeks noted an outreach program from Number 10 and key aides, with the prime minister becoming a regular in the MPs’ dining room after PMQs every Wednesday.
When Burnham was re-elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2021, she declared her role “the best job in the world” in a tearful speech on stage.
But moments later he was asked whether he still had ambitions to return to a senior position at Westminster. “In the distant future, if the party ever feels they need me, I am here and they should contact me,” he said.
After years of speculation, the future may now depend on it.
The path to Burnham’s return to SW1 is fraught with obstacles, with a by-election in Gwynne’s seat of Gorton and Denton still months away.
Several Labor figures said Burnham was likely to be blocked from even reaching the shortlist for the seat by Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee, given the body’s pro-Star majority.
Some of Burnham’s allies argue that Starmer would be taking a political risk if he prevented the mayor from running as a by-election candidate.
A Labor MP from a seat in the north said: “If Keir blocks him from going back to Westminster it will make the Prime Minister look very weak. And if they block him from standing for the seat it could make it more likely that Reform Gorton wins, and Keir would then be responsible for another Reform MP entering Parliament.”
Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, said it would be a “democratic outrage” if Burnham was prevented from being selected as a by-election candidate: “Our union will fiercely oppose any attempt to overturn the selection.”
Burnham, who stood down from his Leigh seat to take up his current role almost a decade ago, has frequently topped both the public and Labor polls asking Starmer to choose their preferred leader.
He has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of the Labor government as it has faltered amid U-turns and unpopular policy decisions.
Before the Labor Party conference in October, Burnham gave a number of interviews which led to speculation about his intentions.
Yet his argument that Britain is “subject to the bond markets” – repeated in a speech at the Institute for Fiscal Studies earlier this week – was widely ridiculed, with MPs also disagreeing that he has the political or intellectual depth to run the party or the country.
Another common criticism, according to the two MPs, relates to Burnham’s departure from Westminster in 2017, when the party’s moderate left was battling leader Jeremy Corbyn.
One said, “Some people’s view of the tea room is like ‘Wait, the moment things got tough, Andy was out the door’.” “And now he comes out and wants to take the prize.”
One minister said “nothing good would come of it” if Burnham tried to return to Parliament in a by-election, adding that he would not be able to win the seat in the face of a Reform UK challenge.
“It would be a huge risk for Andy and a huge distraction for the party,” the minister said. “You also have to remember that Andy is not very well-known among new MPs at Westminster. He hasn’t been here for almost a decade.”
If Burnham returned to Westminster, she would still need to convince at least 80 MPs under party rules to support her in a challenge to Starmer.
Two northern Labor figures said they believed enough people would do so, although with the belief that Burnham could help “save their seats” rather than out of personal enthusiasm.
Regarding where the current turmoil will lead, one MP said, “Nobody really knows an impartial analysis.” “But everyone is trying to take advantage of the chaos to get the results they want.”
