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Voting has begun in Japan in an election that has transformed national politics and looks set to give historic power to the country’s first female prime minister.
Sunday’s election for the lower house of parliament followed the shortest campaign in the post-war period. It is being fought in February for the first time in 36 years, when large parts of the north are under record amounts of snowfall.
The surprise decision by Prime Minister Sanae Takachi on January 23 to dissolve parliament triggered two weeks of intense fighting between his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the newly formed centrist Reform Alliance and increasingly populist parties.
The proportion of female candidates, 24.4 percent, is a record high.
Polls show that Takachi’s brand of blunt populism, and pledges for wholesale change in his party and Japan, have won broad support from voters hungry for a break from the traditional model of leaders.
Although Takachi is on track to increase the LDP’s control of parliament, political analysts said the margin of victory will depend on voter turnout, the impact of bad weather in rural constituencies and whether Takachi’s young urban supporters turned out to vote.
Besides providing a clear mandate for Takaichi’s right-wing policies, a landslide victory on Sunday would revitalize the LDP after years of scandal and falling support.
The election has been called against a backdrop of inflation, economic stress for many families, rising levels of immigration and doubts in bond markets that Japan’s finances can withstand the pressure of Takachi’s plans to increase government spending. Ahead of the weekend, the yen fell to about 157 yen against the dollar.
“Hope cannot arise from politics that has remained hunched over and defensive for decades,” Takaichi said at a rally in Iwate Prefecture on Friday.
During the campaign, he has criticized his own party’s low investment in the economy and corporate Japan’s tendency to spend money abroad due to its shrinking domestic population.
Yoshihiko Noda, co-leader of the CRA, the largest opposition party in parliament, is offering a moderate alternative to voters alarmed by Takachi’s extreme nationalism and has warned against rising populism.
Speaking at the CRA’s final rally in Ikebukuro, Tokyo, on Saturday evening, Noda said “people need to think about what will happen next after the tremendous enthusiasm for Takaichi”, warning that she could change the country’s pacifist constitution if she wins a larger majority.
“Takaichi has taken Japanese politics too far to the right,” said Tanaka, a 50-year-old company employee at a snowy CRA rally. “The CRA has just been formed so policy is difficult for them. The number one thing here is to make sure Takaichi doesn’t become prime minister.”
However, many young people contacted by the FT, who voted early because of exams or part-time jobs, said they supported the LDP.
Chiro Asahina, a 20-year-old student, said he voted for the LDP because “I want Takaichi to continue his diplomacy – it’s great”.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump, who met Takachi shortly after she became prime minister in October, wrote on Twitter that she was a “strong, powerful and wise leader”.
Heading into the election, the LDP had 199 seats in the 465-seat lower house and ruled through a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party.
Political analysts said a realistic goal for the LDP would be to achieve a “stable majority” of 244 seats, which would give it leadership of all lower house committees.
A landslide victory of 261 seats would give it a majority in all those committees and give Takachi substantial parliamentary powers.
About two-thirds of the lower house seats are elected in single-seat districts. The remainder is allocated through a system of proportional representation.
