The AI industry continues to invest billions of dollars in resource-intensive models and the infrastructure to run them. In the face of all this, their promises of starting a technological revolution that could one day be hugely profitable are convincing enough for investors to boost valuations to sky-high valuations – at least for now.
But it is likely to be years before most AI companies actually turn a profit, and it will be difficult if that ever happens. Who will benefit from unbridled spending is also a hotly debated topic, as corporations like Google, Meta and OpenAI continue to compete with each other for dominance in this area.
Google and Meta already have successful businesses doing other things, but OpenAI does not. It hasn’t stopped it Commitment to spend more than $1 trillion An astronomical and extremely risky bet on scale, despite declining revenues, before the end of the decade. Users have shown little willingness to pay for ChatGPT subscriptions, and the company has only begun to explore other revenue-generating avenues.
All this gives rise to a very big unanswered question: How long can OpenAI keep burning cash?
one in new essay for new York TimesSebastian Mallaby, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that the Sam Altman-led company could run out of money “in the next 18 months.”
He argued that OpenAI’s competitors, industry giants like Google, Microsoft and Meta, can use the money earned from their legacy businesses to invest hundreds of billions in developing and enhancing their AI models – while OpenAI does not have that luxury.
Mallaby is not an AI hater. He is extremely optimistic on AI overall, arguing that “it typically takes decades for businesses to successfully deploy new technologies,” whereas the AI industry has made “astonishing” progress in just three years.
In other words, Mallaby isn’t betting against a rising AI bubble — he’s laying out his predicted winners and losers of the ongoing AI race. And despite ChatGPT becoming a household name after its launch three years ago, he expects OpenAI to become a footnote in AI history less than two years from now.
While OpenAI has raised a record amount of funding for a private company, the company is still “starved of cash.” More than $8 billion was destroyed Alone in 2025.
“Even if OpenAI reneges on many of those promises and pays for others with its overvalued shares, the company will still have to find a huge amount of capital,” Mallaby wrote. “Ultimately, no matter how rich the AI prize, capital markets seem unlikely to yield results.”
After the cash runs out, the researcher suggested that OpenAI could be “absorbed by Microsoft, Amazon or another cash-rich giant.”
But even with one of the biggest names in the game gone, Altman and his company will leave behind a lasting legacy, Mallaby argued.
“The failure of OpenAI would not be an indictment of AI, it would simply be the end of its most publicity-driven creator,” he wrote.
Many other experts agree that 2026 is a “maybe.”make or break yearThe pressure on the industry for OpenAI continues to grow.
Altman is sticking to his guns, declaring “Code Red” and doubling down on ChatGPT to keep up with the company’s biggest rival, Google.
“This is the WeWork story on steroids,” says a venture capital owner who has invested in one of OpenAI’s rivals. told economist Last month. Coworking space company collapses like a house of cards and goes bankrupt in 2023 years of turmoilChurning billions of dollars from leasing and buying commercial real estate.
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