First-principles statistics for cognitive biases

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First-principles statistics for cognitive biases

Last updated on February 17, 2026 by Editorial Team

Author(s): Shenggang Li

Originally published on Towards AI.

A practical, model-based way to stop being fooled by “simple health rules” online

Why do “One Simple Habit” posts seem so credible?

First-principles statistics for cognitive biases

photo by Tina Lalawat But unsplash

This article explores the pitfalls of overly simplistic health advice, emphasizing that real-life outcomes are often influenced by multiple factors rather than a single action. This highlights several biases to be careful about, such as the dangers of small sample sizes, selection bias, confounding variables, and interaction effects, all of which can distort our understanding of cause and effect. This piece argues for deeper engagement with data, advocating a first-principles approach in statistical thinking to discern real insights from misleading claims.

Read the entire blog for free on Medium.

Published via Towards AI


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Comment: The content of the article represents the views of the contributing authors and not those of AI.


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