The Met Office wants to lean into one of Britain’s favorite pastimes – talking about the weather – by releasing a new two-week forecast.
Currently, the publicly funded Weather and Climate Service provides seven-day forecasts on its website and app, with a one-hour breakdown for the first five days and then a three-hour breakdown for the last two days.
On Friday, it emerged that the Met Office would extend its forecasts for rainfall, wind speed and temperature by a second week. A statement from the Met Office said: “Fourteen-day forecasts are coming Met Office web and app in the coming months.
“Recent research has highlighted that a probabilistic approach to forecasting could be particularly beneficial for forecasts at this range, and could better inform public decision-making around weather.
“We are exploring how we can use this approach to provide 14-day forecasts via the web and app over the coming months.
“We are already communicating this approach to forecasts in the videos we present through deep dives or 10-day trends on YouTube.
“Developing forecast communications like this is part of our role as the UK’s national weather forecaster, harnessing meteorology to help people make better decisions to stay safe and thrive.”
Many weather apps and websites already offer forecasts for two weeks or more, but the Met Office has until now avoided doing so because of the challenges associated with accuracy.
But new Met Office research has concluded that probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision making.
Ken Mylne, science fellow at the Met Office and author of the new research, said: “Most previous discussions on expressing probabilities in forecasts started from the assumption that it can be difficult for people to understand them and that expressing uncertainty can reduce people’s confidence in the forecast and therefore their ability to make decisions.
“However, this research shows that this assumption is wrong. People can understand probabilistic forecasts and may actually find it more useful for informing weather-based decisions.”
Last October, the BBC announced it would re-link with the Met Office for its weather forecasts and climate updates, eight years after the relationship between the two organizations ended.
Artificial intelligence is now being used to develop advanced forecasting models, which aim to produce weather forecasts faster and further into the future.
Earlier this week, tech company Nvidia announced its Earth-2 weather forecasting model, which it claimed would make forecasts faster and more accurate.
In December 2024, Google DeepMind said its AI weather program improved performance by 20% ENS forecast From the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
