England’s higher-education regulator has warned that a sharp, largely unexplained rise in first-class degrees since 2010-11 raises questions about academic standards. Durham and the University of East London recorded the biggest unexplained increases.
What the regulator found
The Office for Students (OfS) published figures showing that the share of first-class degrees has risen far faster than student entry qualifications alone would predict. For 2023-24, the regulator’s modelling — which controls for factors such as A-level results, subject mix and student age — suggested about 17.7% of graduates should have received a first. In practice, 28.8% did, an 11.1-percentage-point gap. On that basis, nearly 40% of first-class degrees awarded could not be explained by the model.
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Where the increases were largest
Some institutions saw dramatic changes. At the University of East London, the share of firsts rose from 10.9% of degrees in 2010-11 to 35.7% in 2023-24. At Durham University it climbed from 18.4% to 39.6% over the same period. Durham is a Russell Group institution that regularly ranks among the world’s top 100, while the University of East London is a former polytechnic focused on applied subjects. Despite their different profiles, OfS data identified both as having the largest unexplained increases in firsts among 142 English higher-education providers relative to 2010-11.
The pattern is broad. All but four institutions awarded more firsts than in 2010, including Oxford, up 5.5 points to 34.1%, and Cambridge, up 7.2 points to 33.3%. A handful of universities, such as Birmingham City and Oxford Brookes, awarded fewer firsts than the modelling predicted, and the University of Buckingham recorded a notable fall.
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How the figures were produced
The OfS used statistical modelling to estimate “unexplained” attainment and converted the results into standardised scores so that different years and providers could be compared. The regulator acknowledged that better teaching and other reforms could account for a small share of the rise, and noted that changes made in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, or shifts in assessment and classification practices, might also play a role.
How the universities responded
Universities UK said institutions had “taken significant action over a number of years to protect degree standards.” The University of East London highlighted its inclusive, career-focused model, while Durham pointed to separate unadjusted OfS figures indicating its unexplained relative increase was below the sector average, adding that its awards reflect the quality of its students and their research-based education. Sociologist Sam Friedman argued there are strong incentives to raise grades, with effects that can vary between institutions and even departments, and stressed that consistent grading across universities matters for fairness to graduates.
Limitations and what to watch
“Unexplained” attainment is not the same as proven grade inflation. The OfS figure measures the gap between awarded grades and what a statistical model predicts, and that model cannot capture every legitimate driver — genuine improvements in teaching, curriculum changes and shifts in the student population can all contribute. The comparison also anchors to 2010-11, so the choice of baseline shapes the results. The data identifies where scrutiny may be warranted rather than establishing that any individual university has lowered its standards, and the underlying report should be consulted for the full methodology.
