Saudi Arabia has become increasingly frustrated with the US over Donald Trump’s erratic handling of the war with Iran, which has included threats to attack Iranian power plants, suggestions of making Gulf states pay for the conflict and derogatory comments about the kingdom’s leader.
According to Neil Quilliam, a Saudi expert and associate fellow at the Chatham House think-tank, Riyadh is now “completely frustrated with the White House”, as the kingdom had invested heavily in recent years to strengthen its long-term ties with the US.
Trump’s suggestions will heighten Saudi concerns that reopening the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran, will depend on other states and that he could end the war without a deal.
Quilliam said, “They are massively disappointed by Trump’s independent actions, his unwillingness to think about the consequences – and then the biggest one is his comments about MBS (Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman).”
Trump took aim at Prince Mohammed during a speech at a Saudi-hosted investment conference in Miami on Friday. Initially he praised the Saudi royal along with other Gulf leaders, describing him as a “great friend”, “winner” and “warrior”.
But 20 minutes later, Trump said, “He (Prince Mohammed) didn’t think he was going to kiss my ass.”
“They thought it would be just another American president who has lost with a country that is in decline, but now they have to be nice to me,” Trump told the packed audience of some of Prince Mohammed’s top lieutenants. “You tell him he better be nice to me.”
For the Saudis, it was the latest example of rude and unpredictable behavior from the US president. Despite the apparent friendship between Trump and Prince Mohammed, Riyadh is wary of him.
Like other Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia has also been reluctantly dragged into the conflict launched against Iran by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about five weeks ago. The Islamic regime has bombarded America’s Arab allies with missiles and drones on a daily basis.
Bernard Heckel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University who speaks to Prince Mohammed, said tensions have increased as both the war and Saudi Arabia’s attitude toward the conflict have evolved.
Initially, after Trump warned about the risks to the Gulf if he attacked Iran, the Saudis thought that “if the Israelis were going to do it, the Americans might as well get involved because it is safer to result in a war”. Saudi Arabia advised against regime change and attacks on energy infrastructure, but wanted serious damage to Iran’s missile capabilities.
“But given the way this has progressed and the capabilities of the Iranians, they may have to reconsider it,” Heckel said. “They are highly vulnerable and they cannot defend their vast territory, and if their desalination plants and energy go up in smoke, you are talking about going back to the Stone Age. It is an unsustainable situation.”
That threat is underlined by Iran’s ability to launch precision strikes across the Gulf as it vows to retaliate against attacks on its infrastructure. As well as closing shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, vital to the Gulf’s energy exports and trade flows, Iran has hit refineries in Saudi Arabia, desalination plants in Bahrain and Kuwait, Qatar’s main liquefied gas complex and the UAE’s state-owned aluminum company.
When Trump first threatened to “destroy” Iranian power plants last month if the regime did not reopen the strait, Arab ambassadors to the U.S. attending a black-tie gala in Washington held their breath as they watched the news broadcast on their phone screens.
One jumped off his desk. By the end of the night, several Arab states had contacted the White House and the US Defense Department, pleading with the administration not to follow through on Trump’s threat. A senior Gulf official said, “Because at that level – the US is attacking (Iran’s energy infrastructure) – none of us will be able to handle the volume (of Iranian missiles) coming back.”
They were troubled again this week when the White House hinted that Trump might look to the oil-rich Gulf states to pay for a war he wanted to avoid.
Haeckel said Trump “sees billions of people out of their 1970s fantasy full of money… Trump is going to try to shake them down and make them pay for everything”.
The US president used his speech in Miami to pressure Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, saying “the time is now” – despite Prince Mohammed repeatedly saying he would consider it only if Israel took concrete steps to establish a Palestinian state.
Former US official and Johns Hopkins University professor Vali Nasr said: “What you’re seeing is that he (Trump) is becoming more and more frustrated with the Saudis, using indecent language.”
The Iran war has deepened Saudi anger toward Netanyahu’s far-right government, which Riyadh blames for provoking the conflict.
Saudi Arabia has long viewed Iran as a threat, although it has sought to ease tensions with Tehran in recent years, and the kingdom, like other Gulf states, first saw benefits in an Islamic regime weakened by US and Israeli attacks.
But Riyadh now also fears that Trump will suddenly declare victory and withdraw, leaving the Gulf to deal with a wounded but more aggressive, militaristic regime in Tehran that is able to continue threatening its neighbors with missiles and drones.
Publicly, the kingdom has condemned Iran and called for de-escalation, as the war has undermined Prince Mohammed’s trillion-dollar plan to turn the kingdom into a trade and tourism hub.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan joined Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish counterparts in Islamabad this week as part of a regional effort to discuss options to persuade the US and Iran to reach a deal to end the war.
Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Centre, said Saudi Arabia is “prioritizing containment and an early end to the conflict”. If Trump ends the war without seriously weakening Iran’s ability to threaten other Gulf states, tensions are likely to escalate, he said.
“There is also unease about the lack of clear strategic direction in US actions, which increases uncertainty at a very sensitive moment,” he said.
Another concern is if Houthi rebels in Yemen – who entered the conflict last week by firing missiles at Israel – increase their involvement in the war and disrupt shipping in the Bab al-Mandab waterway at the southern end of the Red Sea.
Additional reporting by Ahmed Al Omran in Jeddah
