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The author is Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations
Protests have rocked Iran for more than two weeks. These demonstrations were triggered by increased inflation and currency devaluation. The protesters – initially led by shopkeepers and the poor – demanded basic economic survival. Others have since joined in, pushing for democratic freedoms and an end to the Islamic republic. Since Thursday, huge crowds have gathered in support of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the ousted Shah.
Iran’s ruling elite is grappling with seismic economic challenges, political turmoil and environmental problems of its own making. These are further complicated by Western sanctions and deadlocked talks with Washington. The leadership faces a deep crisis of legitimacy as it prepares for the possibility of renewed conflict against Israel and the United States. Without a new social contract based on meaningful reform, Iran’s prospects are bleak.
In the past, the heavy-handedness of security forces has crushed large protests and these people remain loyal to the regime. Rights groups say more than 100 people, including minors and security personnel, have been killed in the current protests. The ongoing internet blackout in Iran has raised fears that the death toll may be much higher.
On Friday, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei remained predictably defiant, branding the protesters “scumbags.” Iranian security forces allege that protesters have crossed the red line by killing police officers and setting fire to state property. Death penalties have been threatened against those labeled as rioters working with Iran’s foreign enemies. Yet with each suppressed protest movement, the Islamic Republic of Iran has turned more of its own people against itself.
This bottom-up pressure is now compounded by the deepening threat of renewed war. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said threatened To attack if protesters are harmed. Given past ambitions to provoke the fall of the regime, Israel could use the protests as an opportunity to resume attacks.
Iran’s leaders face a dangerous moment, but they are no strangers to chaos. The regime has survived wars, sanctions, and political turmoil through brute force, pragmatism, and leadership unity. However, the off-ramps are now quite narrow. One way is to bet on China and Russia. But despite Khamenei’s efforts to build a coalition based on an anti-Western front, neither Beijing nor Moscow appear ready to play the part. The forced removal of Iran’s allies in Syria and Venezuela – despite support from Russia and China – suggests this is unlikely to yield results.
Iran may choose to tighten security on all fronts, including major action domestically and a show of force abroad. Confronted by Trump’s cowboy tactics in Venezuela, it could confront the US and Israel, perhaps pre-emptively, to a broader regional war or even the nuclear bomb. However, this would be potentially suicidal.
The most sustainable path forward is a new social contract between the state and Iranian citizens. The Islamic Republic can no longer provide adequate economic welfare, the middle class has been hollowed out and corruption is rampant. The security apparatus that used to protect Iranians from the conflicts that ravaged their neighbors can no longer do so.
A new credible social contract needs to offer economic growth, better governance, expanded political rights and social freedoms while transferring power from corrupt ideologues to technocrats en route to systemic change. In direct response to the shopkeepers, Iran’s president called for a national dialogue, replaced the central bank governor and approved small monthly stipends for all families. These gestures have been made too little, too late.
as some activist group The driving force behind the protests is that any new social contract must be decided by the people inside Iran. Attempts by the US and Israel to force change threaten to lead to deeper turmoil. One approach, which has recently been advocated by prominent civil society figures, is Infection Away from the Islamic Republic. Other suggest A new political system shaped by the current ruling elite to avoid spoilers by the security forces. Another way would be to hold a referendum on the amended constitution, as an influential Iranian Sunni religious leader repeated During Friday prayers. This may include eliminating the role of the supreme leader in favor of accountable state institutions.
Sustained reform domestically will ultimately require bargaining with the US. Iran should work with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar – whose leaders fear regional war and have strong ties to Trump – to revive stalled diplomacy. Even if these protests ultimately lead to a new power structure, only a comprehensive agreement with Washington will lift the persistent shadow of war and sanctions under which generations of Iranians have lived.
