US greenhouse gas emissions are rising for the first time in two years – it could rise much higher
A new report finds that US emissions are rising after years of decline due to skyrocketing power demand and freezing temperatures from AI data centers.
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After more than two years of progress on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the US is on track to set a record Estimated 2.4 percent increase in 2025 compared to 2024, according to a new report from Rhodium Group. The findings indicate the energy costs of the rapidly growing artificial intelligence data center industry and cryptocurrencies will cause emissions associated with the power sector to increase by an estimated 3.8 percent in 2025.
Last year’s colder than average winter months also increased demand for heat in buildings, leading to a 6.8 percent increase in emissions compared to 2024.
“Based on historical and forecasted regional consumption data, the largest source of electricity use growth was commercial buildings, where data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations and other large load customers increased electricity demand by 2.4%,” the analysts wrote in the report.
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The report argues that while transportation contributed more greenhouse gases than any other sector in 2025, emissions levels saw almost no increase – possibly because more hybrid and electric vehicles were on US roads.
Looking ahead, the Trump administration’s push for sweeping changes to US energy policies and opening more AI data centers will certainly hinder the country’s progress toward reducing emissions, the report finds. Last year Rhodium analysts predicted that, under the then-current US policy scenario, the country was on track to cut emissions between 38 and 56 percent by 2035, compared with 2005 levels. Now this estimate has reduced to 26 to 35 percent by 2035.
“Our long-term outlook for U.S. GHG emissions changed sharply last year,” Rhodium analysts wrote in the report.
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