Will there be a white Christmas this year? It depends on where you live
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Scientists say chances of snowfall on the big day depend on climate and weather mix
A view of the Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center during snowfall in New York City on December 21, 2024.
Craig T Fruchtman/Getty Images
Dreaming of a white Christmas or not, your chances of actually seeing snow on December 25th depend on the prevailing climate where you live and the weather that day and night.
For some of us in America, it’s a lock; For others, the chances are sadly slim. And in many places, they are becoming thinner as global temperatures rise and winter weather becomes wetter. As Colin Zarzycki, an atmospheric scientist at Pennsylvania State University, says, “If stuff is going to fall from the sky on December 24, if it’s warm, it’s more likely to fall as rain.”
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Source: National Center for Environmental Information (NCI)data,
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According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Data from 1991-2020, there are some places in the U.S. where you can expect to see at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day — for example, higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains, and the upper Midwest and northernmost parts of the Northeast. Beyond these areas, Utah, Nebraska, Wisconsin and a wide swath of the Northeast have about a 50-50 chance of snow on the ground when Santa comes to town. No one is holding their breath in Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, and anywhere in the South.
For winter precipitation to fall as snow, the air must be at or below freezing. As the planet warms, places cold enough for ice will become limited to the northernmost locations and highest elevations. The beginning and end of winter will likely be too warm for snow to form in many places, Zarzycki says — “you narrow the window where you can actually see snow.”
Broadly speaking, the first day of snow across the US is falling later than ever, and the chances of a white Christmas are diminishing. For example, for some locations in southern Ohio, this could mean a 15 percent chance of snow shrinking to 5 percent, while, for northern Vermont, an 85 percent chance could change to a 75 percent chance.
However, there are local oddities, especially in places where lake-effect snow appears from the Great Lakes. Lake-effect snow occurs when bitter winter winds blow over relatively warm lake waters, drawing moisture which then falls as snow on nearby shores. Warming means it’s taking longer for ice to form on lakes, so for a while, those areas may actually get more snowfall overall and later in the winter than in the past.
Similarly, when nor’easters or other large storms that can drop huge amounts of snow occur, they may cause more snowfall than in the past – at least for a time. Imagine a world where winter temperatures are 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus seven degrees Celsius) instead of 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus seven degrees Celsius), Zarzycki says. Higher temperatures are still cold enough for snowfall, but the warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, so “you actually get more intense blizzards.” Observations appear to reflect this trend in southern Canada and the northern U.S.
In other words, a given area may have, say, 40 percent fewer days when it’s cold enough for snowfall, but the average amount of snowfall over a season may only drop by 20 percent. However, if winter temperatures become too warm, storms will bring rain.
For this year, current forecasts are not in favor of a snowy Christmas across much of the country. It is predicted that the winter heat dome will cause temperatures to exceed normal in much of the contiguous US, including the Great Plains and the South. The National Weather Service put it on“Trade the Snowman for a Sunburn!”
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