Donald Trump launched America’s new war against Iran from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida at midnight, presenting it as a decisive effort to deal with Tehran, which no US president has done in nearly half a century.
The “large-scale and ongoing operation” was aimed at “stopping this very evil, radical dictatorship from threatening America,” Trump said in an eight-minute video posted on social media.
He claimed that the primary goal was to eliminate Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. But Trump also set other goals: the destruction of Iran’s navy, neutralizing its regional proxies, and ultimately regime change.
With the US flag and the presidential seal behind him, and the shadow of his white hat partially obscuring his face, Trump called on Iranians to overthrow their rulers – and acknowledged that some US troops may be killed in the effort.
Trump said, “We may have casualties, that often happens in war, but we are not doing that now. We are doing this for the future.”
For the 79-year-old president, who campaigned heavily on ending American involvement in “endless wars” and has for years been skeptical of American nation-building aspirations, the conflict he launched on Saturday is his riskiest military move yet.
The White House calculation is that Trump can overthrow the Tehran regime without further destabilizing the Middle East, or prompting deeper US involvement such as troops on the ground in Iran, or retaliating against US interests in the region.
But it also reflects their growing willingness to launch lethal military operations around the world in international waters from Yemen to Nigeria, Syria and most recently Venezuela, and against alleged drug boats in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean.
In recent months, Trump has made increasingly aggressive threats against Colombia and Mexico, and initiated a military takeover of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, before backing down after a massive European backlash.
Trump has also called for a 50 percent increase in the $1 trillion annual US defense budget, while boasting about numerous foreign interventions in his two presidential terms so far.
“I will seek peace wherever I can, but wherever we face threats to America, I will never hesitate to confront them,” Trump said during his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday night. He justified a potential attack on Iran in advance, accusing Tehran of harboring “terrible” nuclear ambitions.
With the attack, Trump hopes to realize a long-cherished strategic goal of the US across multiple administrations. Since the 1979 revolution, presidents have used a variety of tactics to rein in the Islamic Republic, including multiple rounds of sanctions, the George W. Bush’s description of Tehran as part of an “axis of evil”, including Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, which Trump broke up during his first term.
In attacking Iran, Trump was encouraged by more limited US strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities last June, which did not lead to the broader regional conflict that many had feared. But this is a much bigger attack, and the Islamic regime, facing an existential threat, quickly fired missiles at US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Kuwait.
In early January, Trump was tempted to intervene again in support of widespread protests on the streets of Tehran. “We are locked in and ready to go,” Trump wrote on Truth Social as early as January 2. The day US special operations raided Venezuela to capture strongman leader Nicolas Maduro.
Trump hesitated at the time to attack, preferring to bolster America’s military capacity in the region with two aircraft carriers and dozens of aircraft and warships and make other efforts at diplomacy. He also faced pressure from US allies in the Gulf and Europe, who called for restraint.
But on Friday, as he visited Texas on his way to Florida, arriving back in Washington for a last-ditch effort to find a diplomatic solution with the Omani foreign minister, Trump signaled he had lost patience. He said of Iran, “I would love to do it peacefully but they are very difficult people… dangerous people.”
The new Iranian attack poses a domestic political threat to Trump. For one, disruptions in global energy markets could push U.S. gasoline prices higher as the country nears midterm elections. “A limited set of strikes could potentially push oil to $80 a barrel, while a prolonged conflict could cause supply disruptions, sending prices much higher – which would have a significant impact on global inflation,” William Jackson of Capital Economics said in a note on Saturday.
Parts of Trump’s MAGA base have balked at his military adventurism on the grounds that it betrays his pledge to avoid new conflicts and distracts the White House from dealing with domestic concerns such as the high cost of living. The trauma of the ill-fated, costly and prolonged US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is still felt across the political spectrum.
Rosemary Kelenic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a Washington think-tank, said Saturday, “By attacking Iran, President Trump is risking the lives of American service members by leading to an unnecessary war under the mistaken belief that a weak and remote country like Iran, which cannot attack the American homeland, is an imminent threat to the United States.”
A poll released last month by Quinnipiac University found that 70 percent of Americans did not believe the US should get involved in using the military to help Iranian protesters. Only 18 percent supported the strike. According to the same poll, a strong majority of Americans said Trump needs to gain congressional approval before launching a military operation against another country. Trump did not do this.
Speaking to The Washington Post this week, US Vice President JD Vance, who is known to be skeptical of military intervention, dismissed some of those concerns.
Vance said, “I think we have to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. I also think we have to avoid learning the lessons of the past.” “Just because a president screwed up military conflict doesn’t mean we can never engage in military conflict again.”
