Britain is less prepared for this crisis

Good morning. Keir Starmer held a press conference yesterday about the Greenland crisis. Some thoughts on what he didn’t say in today’s note.

On leadership in dangerous times

Because I know how to have a good time, I wondered what we wrote during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and how Harold Macmillan’s response was covered, so I decided to take a look at our archive:

(Fun fact for readers like me: The crisis has a 13-day duration TooUnless I am very mistaken, the suggestion of a referendum on Britain’s current EU membership appeared on our pages for the first time. The suggestion came from Arthur Bottomley, the Labor MP for Middlesbrough East.)

Not a million miles away from our coverage of Keir Starmer’s response to the Greenland crisis. But the big and important difference at the time was that the average British person was well aware of what the consequences could be if the Cuban Missile Crisis got out of control. Teenagers made disgusting jokes about being able to see mushroom clouds on the horizon. Reading more downmarket newspaper records tells me that people stockpiled food, engaged in nuclear drills and in some cases simply got drunk to ease their anxieties.

Now, I’m not saying any of these things would be good or useful responses now. But I think there is a gap between the Labor Government and indeed all NATO members’ understanding of the scale of the crisis, the potential downside risks, and the British public’s understanding. (I think this is true for most European states that are not frontier states, but this is a newspaper about British politics.)

How much of George Robertson’s warning has the average person absorbed? “We’re underprepared, we’re underinsured, we’re under attack. We’re not safe.”? Or Blaise Metraveli’s warning that “Borderline is everywhere”? The answer, obviously, is “absolutely not,” because if it were, people would demand that we spend more on our defense or that we fundamentally reshape our foreign policy in favor of Russia. (I’m not saying the latter is desirable or possible: I’m just saying that “the general public becoming more aware of the situation” will, I think, lean either way: some people will become more concerned that we take steps to defend ourselves, others that we want a new approach to Russia).

We are some distance away from becoming a society like Latvia, where the governor of the central bank said that Europe was already at war with Russia, although you can easily hear this assessment from members and former members of the UK defense establishment. (Robertson and another Labor peer, Alan West, said the same thing on Lord Speaker Podcast at the end of last year.)

The big thing Starmer needs to do is use set-piece events – such as yesterday’s press conference – and the platform that comes with being prime minister to set out just how high the stakes are facing Britain. So far, he hasn’t.

try this now

This week, I mostly heard Church’s new single, a cover of Robert Palmer’s Addicted to LoveWhile writing my column.

Today’s top stories

• unhappy to read | The unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in the three months to November, its highest level since the beginning of 2021, following a long period of weak hiring. Today’s data also showed that wage growth in the UK slowed as employers cut headcount ahead of the Budget.

• ‘Big stupidity’ | Donald Trump has accused Britain of “stupidity” and “weakness” over its plan to transfer ownership of the Chagos Islands, including the US air base at Diego Garcia, to Mauritius, and described the move as a reason for Washington to seize Greenland. Nigel Farage, who has promised to overturn the Chagos Islands deal, posted on Twitter: “Thank God Trump vetoed the Chagos Islands surrender.”

• loot | Keir Starmer said at yesterday’s press conference that he does not think Donald Trump would use military force to seize Greenland as he warned that a trade war with the US would cause “huge harm” to Britain. In Davos, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant urged America’s trading partners to “take a deep breath and let things unfold”, adding that “the worst thing countries can do is move against America”. You can stay updated on Trump’s meeting in Greenland by following our live blog.

• walk on foot | Despite government promises to increase defense spending, military experts and industry executives warn that little new money has been spent on contracts for conventional capabilities. Instead, much of it has been absorbed by inflation and other factors such as the country’s nuclear program.

• spring in state stage | Keir Starmer’s “enforcers” will plan to give bumper bonuses worth thousands of pounds to top performing civil servants as he warns the government is “unacceptably lagging behind” the private sector.