Keir Starmer reduced to the limits of his powers

Good morning. Unsurprisingly, Andy Burnham sought the nomination for the impending Gorton and Denton by-election. Equally astonishingly, Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee has blocked them from doing so. Some thoughts on where that leaves both Burnham and Keir Starmer in today’s notes.

When I finish reading the White Paper, I will write about the government’s new and comprehensive plans for police reform in a future newsletter.

no andes club

Andy Burnham’s biggest obstacle to the Labor leadership is that to be a candidate for that office, you have to be an MP, and his path to becoming an MP goes through the NEC where he has some real allies.

Keir Starmer was able to stop him standing down yesterday, not because the 10-strong group of NEC officials is the center of pro-Starmer sentiment – ​​that would be enough for a narrow majority – but because if you are a supporter of one of the other potential replacements, it is Too It’s in your best interest to keep Burnham away. According to an NEC member, his vote was eight versus one against and Starmer was one of those who abstained.

When Labor last year imposed a requirement for metro mayors to seek NEC permission to stand in by-elections – effectively a “no Andy Burnhams” rule – no one blinked. This is partly because it is not in Starmer’s interests to exclude a strong opponent from the next Labor leadership contest. It is also in the interests of all the other politicians trying to replace Starmer. Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner were among the politicians saying the NEC should let Burnham go through the membership round, but no one supporting Streeting or Rayner would be unhappy with a potential opponent being sidelined.

Because Starmer’s approval ratings and morale among Labor MPs are so low, little else the Prime Minister does is “risk free”. But the advantages of “the only candidate who polls better than you is ineligible to stand” outweigh the negative aspects. Even if the party loses the Gorton by-election, frankly, that’s small beer compared to the scale of Labour’s impending defeat in Wales.

In many ways this leaves the government where it was: the Prime Minister’s prestige is diminished, meaning it is harder for him to get anything controversial through Parliament (and some ministers complain that there are noticeable doubts in parts of Whitehall about the Prime Minister’s worth doing anything difficult given his position). Labor MPs want change at some point but are divided over who, when and how. And the only candidate who, at least according to the surveys, is an advance on the Prime Minister is unavailable and likely to remain so.

try this now

I saw no other choice. It looked cute but it went on too long, and I thought the satire became quite blunt by the end as a result. Danny Leigh, who enjoyed it more than I did, reviewed it here.

Today’s top stories

• Starmer in Beijing | In the first visit to China by a British prime minister since Theresa May in 2018, Keir Starmer will aim to improve strained relations with Beijing. China would like a successful Starmer visit to lay the groundwork for an expected visit by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in February, which it hopes will help improve ties with the EU and enable it to further exploit the growing divide between the US and its Western allies.

• numbers increase | Business Secretary Peter Kyle has called for MPs’ pay to be linked directly to GDP to encourage Westminster to prioritize economic growth.

• ‘Britain’s FBI’ | Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will unveil reforms in policing this afternoon. Some responsibilities, including tackling organized crime, will no longer be handled at a local level, and will instead be handed over to a new national police force for England and Wales which will merge with the existing National Crime Agency and the College of Policing.

• The complex topic of obesity | about a quarter are GPs Viewing children aged four or younger That’s according to a survey of UK family doctors who are obese, The Guardian reports. The survey asked 540 family doctors about their experience of managing obesity and found that four out of five of them found it difficult to talk to children or their parents about the condition if such conversations would make them feel upset, angry or embarrassed.

• ICYMI | The FT’s podcast Political Fix discusses Donald Trump’s anger over the past week and Keir Starmer’s vision of America, with Lucy Fisher and special guest Alec Russell.