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Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
According to Susie Wills, Donald Trump’s chief of staff, although he drinks, his personality is “like an alcoholic”. People with addictive personalities are compulsive risk takers. Doing what you enjoy stops the pain.
In Trump’s case, that pain is increasingly domestic and the cure foreign. The more dire their situation at home – their poll numbers are poor and show no signs of improvement – the greater the temptation to seek solutions abroad.
As time goes on, almost every American president makes foreign policy changes, leaving Trump with little guidance. They have learned that it is much easier to escape the polite imagination of international law than the decisions of American courts. In explaining why he ordered the kidnapping of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro last Saturday, Trump cited a US warrant. He sends the sheriff into the woods to retrieve a fugitive from American justice. It worked like a charm. As long as the goal is not achieved, success is certain.
Trump is growing confident in his unchecked control over America’s war machine. In such a situation, Denmark’s concern is justified. Without prompting, he raised Greenland in his appearance after Maduro last Sunday. He has since confirmed several times that “we need Greenland”. Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, says, “There is absolutely no point in talking about the need to annex Greenland”. To which Trump simply reiterates that Greenland is essential for American security.
“Do you know what Denmark recently did to increase security in Greenland?” he asked. “They added another dog sled.”
Trump’s fate is such that he appointed the envoy to Greenland – Louisiana’s Republican governor, Jeff Landry – just before Christmas. “It is an honor to serve you in this volunteer capacity to make Greenland a part of the United States,” Landry said. Last year, Trump sent his Vice President JD Vance to Greenland uninvited to survey the area. Anyone who believes Trump is merely trolling should book a vacation to Caracas.
But why Greenland? First, because it would be easier. Like “Operation Absolute Resolve” in Venezuela, Trump could occupy Greenland from the demonstrative comfort of the Situation Room (he built a look-alike at Mar-a-Lago). It would take an hour or two and there would be no risk of any American casualties. In this way Trump can continue to emulate Barack Obama, whose iconic photographs of the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden he greatly envies. Although the Danes are not pacifists, it would be suicidal to oppose a superpower.
Second, it would be beneficial to add Greenland to your column. Trump’s liberal friends have been eyeing this for some time. Peter Thiel, who wants to establish a crypto-empowered “network state” on the undeveloped region, has invested in Praxis, a start-up that aims to do just that and has discovered Greenland. Trump’s ambassador to Denmark, Ken Howery, was the co-founder of PayPal with Thiel and Elon Musk. Silicon Valley is filled with billionaires investing in network ventures of some kind or another. Greenland tops most lists. Unlike Mars, the occupation of Greenland is possible.
Apart from pleasing libertarians, annexing Greenland would not sit well with MAGA ideologues, as it would kill NATO in one fell swoop. Denmark could invoke Article V in which an attack on one is an attack on all. Since the US leads NATO, the treaty will be cancelled. No allies would come to Denmark’s defence. Had Denmark accepted fate, the outcome would have been the same. Either way, geography, not law, will convince Trump. Although a piece of Greenland is located in the Eastern Hemisphere, most of it is located in the Western Hemisphere.
It is plausible that developments in Venezuela may keep Trump’s attention focused on the Caribbean rather than the Arctic. A strike on a Colombian coca plantation, or a Mexican fentanyl site would be no shock. Similarly, Cuba should also look at itself. Although Trump also wants Canada to be the 51st US state, he has stopped harboring that ambition since Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister last year. In the realm of Trump’s public thinking, Canada is on the receiving end of trolling. On the other hand, the Stars and Stripes may rise over Greenland at any time.
Betting among Trump’s domestic opponents is that as his fortunes decline, he will take more risks. Trump’s anarchy is inversely related to his political troubles. Democrats are expected to retake the House of Representatives in November. The pressure to release the unredacted Jeffrey Epstein files will not subside until Trump does, something he has made clear he will never do. No good publicity can come from the perception that he is bent upon suppressing what he is legally bound to make public.
Even the normally flexible U.S. Supreme Court could soon deliver bad news if it strikes down large portions of Trump’s tariffs. Lower courts regularly block the deployment of US troops to US cities. So far Trump has largely complied with judicial rulings. Conversely, there is no court that can actually investigate the US’s use of military force abroad. Nor, unlike in his first term, is there any voice around him advising restraint.
As a source of shock value, completing missions and making money, Trump always has Greenland. His temptation is only likely to increase.
edward.luce@ft.com
