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Universities in Durham and East London have seen the largest unexplained increase in top grades since 2010-11, according to figures underlining concerns about so-called grade inflation.
Regulators said almost two-thirds more first-class degrees were awarded, which could be explained by student qualifications such as A-levels and other factors, raising fears about falling standards in English higher education.
The Office for Students (OfS) said universities need to do more to maintain standards as it published data on Thursday that adds further fuel to arguments that the value of degrees is falling.
The regulator is concerned that universities are facing increasing pressure to please students and climb the league tables, so the bar has been lowered.
In 2023-24, 28.8 per cent of graduates were awarded a first prize, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, which peaked during Covid.
But this figure – almost double the 2010-11 level – combined with OfS modeling based on student A-level results, subject mix and other factors, suggests that only 17.7 per cent should have achieved a first place that year.
The regulator believes better teaching and other reforms can explain a small fraction of this increase.
Some universities have seen huge increases in the share of UK students achieving first-class degrees.
At the University of East London, first-graders increased from 10.9 per cent of degrees in 2010–11 to 35.7 per cent in 2023–24. Over the same period the share of top grades at Durham University increased from 18.4 per cent to 39.6 per cent.
Durham is a Russell Group university that regularly ranks in the world’s top 100, while the University of East London is a former polytechnic that focuses on applied subjects.
But data published by the OfS showed that both universities had the largest unexplained increase in the share of firsts compared with the rates of awards among 142 English higher education institutions in 2010–11.
Josh Fleming, director of strategy and delivery at the OfS, said the sector has taken positive steps to address grade inflation, but he added, “much remains to be done to maintain public confidence in the value of a degree from an English university”.
“Students, employers and the public need to have confidence that the degrees institutions award accurately reflect student achievement,” he said.
OfS used statistical modeling to calculate unexplained rates of attainment and convert these into standardized scores to allow comparisons between academic years and providers.
Since 2010–11, the proportion of University of Buckingham students receiving first awards has more than halved from 17 per cent, based on the analysis, the largest increase among providers that had degree-awarding powers 15 years ago.
Former government education policy adviser Sam Friedman said there were “strong incentives to raise grades”, the impact of which could vary between universities and departments within the same institution.
“Accurate grading between institutions is important to ensure fairness for graduates,” he said.
All but four institutions are awarding more first prizes than in 2010, including Oxford, where the proportion of students has increased by 5.5 points to 34.1 per cent, and Cambridge, which has increased by 7.2 points to 33.3 per cent.
In almost all universities, the OfS estimates that some of this is unclear. Only a few universities, including Birmingham City and Oxford Brookes, awarded fewer first prizes than expected based on their modelling.
A spokesperson for Universities UK said that institutions “have taken significant action over a number of years to protect degree standards” and are “committed to protecting this value”.
The report said the estimates take into account factors including school grades and subject mix, but the unexplained rise in achievement could be influenced by changes made in response to the Covid-19 pandemic or improvements in teaching quality.
The University of East London said: “Our multi-award-winning career-first education at the UK’s most dynamic, socially inclusive university is unlocking the potential of some of the most innovative, creative (and) flexible talents in the world.”
Durham University pointed to separate unadjusted OfS figures, which showed that the unexplained attainment relative increase was “significantly lower than the sector average”.
“Our awards reflect the quality of our students and the research-based education they receive at Durham,” the university said. The university said its degrees had been lauded by external assessors.
Additional reporting by Oliver Hawkins
