The appearance of David Miliband, head of the International Rescue Committee, at Westminster on Monday was a reminder to ambitious Labor politicians of the dangers of getting sidetracked and missing a political moment.
In 2008 colleagues urged the then Foreign Secretary to run against a weakened Gordon Brown, but he refused to go ahead; The party crown was eventually seized by his brother Ed.
Sir Keir Starmer may have bought himself some time by blocking Andy Burnham’s bid to return to Westminster, but many Labor MPs see it as merely delaying the leadership crisis. The question is for how long?
While Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham’s bid to return as an MP may have been thwarted in a by-election, the threat posed to Starmer by Health Secretary Wes Streeting has not gone away.
Labor officials say that until Starmer and his allies intervened to prevent Burnham’s return to Westminster, the assumption was that the initial move in any coup would come from the mayor of Greater Manchester.
With Burnham sidelined for now, this presents a huge dilemma for Streeting. “He is the one who will have to pull the trigger now,” said a confidant of the prime minister. “And everyone knows there’s a real danger in having a killer in a leadership contest.”
Some Labor officials believe Starmer could be brought down by a rebellion on multiple fronts, including possible Cabinet resignations or a letter from MPs asking him to step down without directly involving Streeting.
A hopeless “stalker” candidate could be put forward to weaken Starmer. To formally launch a contest, any opponent of Starmer needs to gather the support of 81 colleagues.
Streeting, who comes from the right wing of the party, is well aware of the risks of what the Labor Party majority fears is a “Blairite coup”.
The consensus among Labor MPs is that Streeter is unlikely to move against Starmer ahead of the crucial election on May 7, but it is more likely to be an assessment of the mood after what many in the party expect to be an election shock.
Still, Streeting has some explaining to do. The last person to contest the Labor leadership on a Blairite ticket, Liz Kendall, won 4.5 percent of the party vote in 2015.
“What’s his pitch?” asked a well-connected labor official on the left. “He can’t just say he’s good in the broadcast media era.”
Some believe Streeting, who has cited the advantages of joining a new customs union with the EU, will use the Europe issue to win over left-leaning allies. One party strategist said, “Europe is an issue that can alienate people from their traditional positions.”
Streeting has also recently taken a left-wing stance on other issues, including protests against Gaza and winter fuel payment cuts. His supporters say recent polls show Labor mainly wants a leader who is competent and can defeat Farage.
One Labor figure said half of the government ministers and half of the PLP could potentially support the Health Secretary for the leadership if a vacancy arose.
But the figure insisted that Streeting had told Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney before Christmas that he was not on active manoeuvres. “His conversation with Morgan showed that he was clear that he was not plotting but planning,” he said. “He was talking about what would happen if everything broke instead of trying to break things.”
The move to sideline Burnham from the leadership debate – apparently because Labor did not want to fight an expensive mayoral by-election in Manchester – was clearly intended to provide Starmer some room to turn things around before the May elections.
An aide to Starmer said, “The best solution to all this speculation is good governance, good policies and then we will make our case to the voters.” Many Labor MPs are not convinced that Starmer can meet that challenge.
Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander admitted on Monday that if Burnham had returned to Westminster in the coming weeks, the run-up to May elections in Scotland, Wales and the English Council would have been plunged into a “psychodrama” around the leadership.
One moderate Labor MP said: “Everything Keir did would have to be looked at through the prism of what Andy was going to do and what Andy was going to say.” Some believe that Burnham could have moved against Starmer before 7 May.
The path to a coup is still unclear and Starmer’s team is clinging to the hope that something might happen before May and his rivals – including Renner and deputy Labor leader Lucy Powell – will lose steam.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s authority could be further weakened, especially if Labor loses the Gorton and Denton by-election, which will be held on 26 February.
Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, said on Monday that Starmer’s decision to block Burnham, nicknamed the “King in the North”, could hand the seat to his party.
Farage said, “If Burnham had stood at that time, I think she would have strengthened the anti-Starmer vote.” “I think our chances have improved drastically overnight.”
For Starmer, it is a risk he is willing to take, in the hope that he can achieve some relative political calm before the May elections, as Labor activists go door-to-door preparing to stoke the anger of voters.
“This is what the party membership expects,” said one Labor official. “In this respect Kiir got it right. But that does not mean the people are satisfied with his leadership. On the contrary, they are deeply dissatisfied.”
Buying time may be Starmer’s only survival strategy at this point. Streeting’s job is to determine if – or when – the mood at a party has gone sour.
