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One day Europeans may thank Donald Trump for forcing them to do what they should have done long ago: re-establish their military and technological independence. For years, Europe’s strategic stance has been to hope for the best and prepare for the best. But the message from the US President in Davos this week could not have been clearer: Europe must now prepare for the worst. Trump may have supported military action against Greenland and punitive tariffs against its European supporters, but his derisive opposition to Europe was overwhelming. It is beyond time for Europe to internalize that message, end eight decades of dependency and go alone wherever possible.
As the transatlantic rift widens, Europe is gradually rebuilding its hard power to support Ukraine and counter recalcitrant Russia. As Canada’s prime minister, she will also have to contend with both the US and China, who are weaponizing tariffs, financial infrastructure and supply chains. mark carney Gave warning. Global integration, long the motto of European policymakers, risks subordination. European sovereignty must be made real.
But it is a difficult challenge for Europe to separate itself from America. Many would say this is impossible given the depth of economic, financial, technological and military interconnections. Still, the effort must be made, and Canada is leading the way. Commendably, the EU is already copying Canada’s strategy by reducing internal barriers to trade, doubling technology investments and seeking to expand trade ties with South America and India to balance the US. “Now is the time to seize this opportunity and build a new free Europe.” Ursula von der Leyenthe EU Commission President said in Davos.
In response to Trump’s provocations, several NATO members in Europe are promising to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, albeit more slowly than current demands. But the region’s reliance on US defense companies, including tech companies like drone maker Anduril and data platform Palantir, seems reckless given Washington’s unreliability as a partner. Europe must integrate its fragmented defense procurement process to develop its own defense capabilities. It should also nurture European defense tech start-ups including Hellsing, Quantum Systems and Techever.
It will be equally difficult for Europe to separate itself from the American technological infrastructure. according to an estimateThree American companies control 65 percent of Europe’s cloud computing market. US companies also dominate AI foundation models, semiconductors, search engines, social media and messaging apps in Europe. Even if it cannot completely replace all these services, Europe can still go a long way in boosting its own tech sector. Deepening the single market would be the biggest contribution European leaders can make. But they can also help raise more private growth capital to boost Europe’s most promising start-ups and encourage governments and companies to buy European first.
European entrepreneurs have long been frustrated by meaningful help from the EU Commission. But they have been encouraged by its enthusiasm for the 28th regime, a pan-European regulatory framework that will allow companies to expand more easily. They would cheer even louder if European politicians gave more incentives for entrepreneurs to stay in Europe and actively welcomed and rewarded international researchers like China does.
Luis Garicano, a professor at the London School of Economics and co-author of the Silicon Continent newsletter, argues that the EU is too burdened to respond to the urgency of the situation. He supports the idea of a coalition of interested people in important areas such as military rearmament, capital market consolidation and industrial policy. These alliances should also include non-member countries like the UK and Ukraine.
“Europe desperately needed an external shock,” Garicano told me. “I’ve lost count of the number of wake-up calls we’ve snoozed.” But if Trump succeeds in uniting Europe around some tough and pragmatic reforms, the region will be in a stronger position in 20 years, he says.
The challenges remain daunting, but determination is building. Trump is extremely unpopular in Europe. And as Carney has shown in Canada, standing up to the American president can help defeat the populist nationalists who are rising to such a high profile in Europe. Just as pressure from the East forced European unification during the Cold War, threats from the West in today’s warm peace may inspire European renewal.
john.thornhill@ft.com
