How many bubbles are there in a standard bottle of champagne? In fact, there are none. Champagne’s signature gas pills cannot be made unless one extracts its golden contents.
But there are no worries about a bubble in the premium vintage Champagne market. After more than two years of disappointing trading, some excellent fizz can be bought from France at relatively cheap prices.
For many years regarded as the forgotten cousin of Burgundy and Bordeaux, during the Covid years homebound collectors piled on the best of surplus capital, and prices nearly doubled.
When speculative demand eventually dried up, the fine wine market was left with excess inventory, causing prices to collapse. According to Liv-Ex, the fine wine exchange, its Champagne 50 index has fallen by more than a third since peaking in December 2022.
However, finally people with pricey noses have started buying. According to Sophia Gilmour, market analyst at Liv-Ex, ” Vintage Champagne has been on a rise since the summer.” “We have seen an increase in trading volume.” These have doubled since June.
He believes the turning point for Champagne came after an increase in US tariffs on imported wines in April, as keen collectors, particularly from Europe, sought out top brands.
Gilmour cited renewed interest in the two expensive Champagnes in the Liv-Ex index, Vintage Salon and Celosse Millesime. “Risking this level of capital rather than choosing more affordable wines indicates better confidence in future price performance and demand.” Before any duty or tax, a six-bottle case of Jacques Celosé Millesime 2002 is worth approximately £10,000.
Vintage Champagne benefits from structural factors. First, while many of the most famous still wines of Burgundy and Bordeaux, especially reds, may require additional aging in the bottle, older Champagne may be ready to drink upon release. Young consumers generally have less patience for fine wines than previous generations.
This trend has also been reflected in auction sales. Nick Pegna, head of wine at Sotheby’s, notes that the vintage Champagnes Dom Pérignon and Krug were unusually among its top 10 sellers last year. They have seen more interest from younger bidders. “It’s a more accessible category. You don’t have to think about food pairing.” That said, no vintage will be terrible.
Champagne is usually consumed in multiple bottles, even at celebrations such as weddings. This reduces the supply more rapidly. In Hong Kong, a revived stock market – the Hang Seng index is up 30 percent year to date – has led to plenty of champagne being gifted to clients by the financial community, according to wine trader Altaya.
In general, top marques have always attracted constant attention from collectors. “Vinos from vintages such as 1996, 2002, 2004 and 2008 with good provenance from Salon, Krug, Dom Pérignon and (Louis Roederer) Cristal are always in demand,” says Miles Davis, consultant at Vinum Fine Wines.
“At a low price among the elite (producers), Taittinger’s Comtes de Champagne is very popular and holds incredibly good value due to its quality.” Your six-pack at £620, before duty and taxes.
But opinions are mixed on how the market’s admittedly modest recovery will play out next year. The Champagne 50 index is up only 14 percent after several months of decline.
“Yes, the Champagne 50 index has stabilized since May,” says Peter Mitchell, head of wine at Merchant Jeroboams. He agrees that the price of some rare Champagnes, such as the Champagne of Selouse, has jumped, but he is not sure there will be further action. “My feeling is that, going forward, we won’t see spectacular growth… It doesn’t feel like a bull market, but there are buyers.”
There’s another factor to consider, says Nick Baker, founder of The Finest Bubble in London. The quality of the vintages available during the pandemic was exceptional, particularly in 2008, 2012 and 2013. “So we got a little spoiled from the great vintages and now the recent ones (from 2015) are not as good,” he says. This may have given buyers another reason to hold off on purchases.
Thus, he claims cautious optimism. “We shouldn’t talk too much about the market. It’s not moving fast.”
Where Baker sees more potential is in less common bottle formats. He believes that magnums – equivalent to two regular bottles – are worth their premium prices given their scarcity value. They also offer longer shelf life as smaller amounts of wine can be exposed to oxygen. Magnum’s share in production is less than 10 percent.
Gilmour remains bullish in Liv-X. A healthy sign is that the value of bids has increased by 0.5 times that of offers on the exchange, which means the amount demanded is half the supply. “This is the range we have identified (for premium Champagne) that predicts positive future price movements in the coming months.”
